Lessons in investing

Lesson 3: How predictable are the markets?

The financial media loves to tell us which way the markets are heading and spot the 'hot tips' they reckon the other pundits have missed. But just how good are they at getting it right? Is it possible to forecast market falls or rises at any one point in time? Or are they inherently unpredictable?

AcuityINSIGHT: Good outcomes: the result of a sensible processIt's well understood that past performance alone is no indicator of strong performance going forward. This Insight demonstrates that focusing on structure and risk exposures, rather than performance, leads to positive outcomes. It's important not to be performance-focused, but rather concentrate on

AcuityINSIGHT: If, and, then, but…This Insight takes the case of Evergrande - a Chinese property developer whose financial woes have caused some jitters in the market - and explains how news stories often get conflated by conditional probabilities of possibly linked events.

AcuityINSIGHT: Stock ownership: a slice of the pieThis short educational note focuses on some of the basic features of being a shareholder in public equity markets, which can sometimes be taken for granted when one is familiar with - and regularly invests in - model portfolios comprising equity funds.

Lessons in investing

Lesson 3: How predictable are the markets?

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